Monday, October 29, 2007

Stuff

I continually hear from economists, talking heads, other market missive writers, analysts and miscellaneous “experts” that I need to cognize all sorts of “stuff” about the pillory and common finances I am going to purchase and I should maintain up with them on a regular basis.

What is this of import “stuff”?

Let’s see. Oh, I know. Price to Earning ratio, P/E. That’s always a large 1 on almost everyone’s list. Simply set it is how many old age it will take a company’s earning to pay back the terms today. It can be from five to eternity if it is not earning anything. Today there are many companies that have got P/Es inch extra of 50. That’s Fifty old age to earn back your investment. Kinda steep, don’t you think? For old age the average have been 14 or 15. Today it is about 28 to 30 depending on who is counting.

A stock merchandising at 14 P/E is fairly valued by “experts”, but if the stock is going down is that still a “fair” value? Bash you desire to purchase something that is a just value, but looks like it will sell for less in a few months?

Then there are all sorts of things market analysts like to look for and talking about such as a gross sales, nett profit, management experience, competition, industry sector, price/volume relationship, interest rates, rate of rising prices and I could travel on for a couple of pages, but you get the idea. When, and if, you make this type of analysis you will happen most of the numbers don’t hold with each other to give you a clear thought of whether to purchase or sell. It is like trying to pick a button out of a lavation machine during wash cycle. The more than than you look the more baffled you become.

Brokerage companies desire you to seek to utilize all this “stuff”. They encourage you to go confused. That manner if you pick a stock that travels down they don’t take any blame. “The market is very complex” is their favourite phrase. Whether you win or lose they do money in commissions.

If this “stuff” is of no value in stock choice (and it isn’t) then how are you to happen pillory that spell up? It is so simple that brokers don’t desire you to know. In fact, most of them don’t know. Here is the answer. Find a stock or better yet a common monetary fund that is going up. Are that too easy?

There is a basic law of physical science that states a organic structure in movement will stay in movement in the same direction until disturbed by another force. The Law of Inertia. This same rule can be applied to the stock market.

Find a stock or common monetary fund that is going up and purchase it. When the direction changes to down (or even sideways) sell.

You don’t need all that “stuff”.

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