Buying New Issues

Has your broker been calling you recently with the "great opportunity" to get in on a new Initial Public Offering? With friends like that you don't need any enemies.

I don't care how good this new stock offering sounds. The chances it will stay even or go up are about 1 in 3 and I don't want to play those odds with my money.

Most of the new IPOs these days are from the technology sector. That is where the romance and big money has been, but the NASDAQ topped out on March 10 this year. It is a good idea to take a look at what has happened to these new offerings since that time.

The S&P500 Index has dropped only 3% since March 10 while the NASDAQ Composite has fallen 43%. Here are a couple of numbers you will want to remember for the rest of your life if you have any interest in the stock market. Sixty percent of the move in any stock is due to the category or sector it is in. Twenty percent of a stock price is due to the overall market movement and 20% is caused by the quality of the company itself. You can immediately recognize that even if you have bought the best stock it has only a 1 in 5 chance of going up if the other 2 factors are not working for you. Since March 10 the New Issues Index is down 67%.

With all the major market indexes in the sewer there is little hope for ever finding one of those new issues that comes out at $10 and runs up to $200. Those days are gone forever - at least in the technology field. The NASDAQ has a better chance of going to 1500 before it ever goes back to 5000.

For the next year, maybe longer, we are going to see the number of new issues dry up and almost disappear. And there are many other good reasons other than the overall market. In a new issue you have no idea how the company will perform. Will management make its projected goals? Is there any possibility of a profit? You have no track record for their price performance. Will the stock price trend up or down? The more of these unknowns you throw into the mix the less chance there is that the stock will go up.

Last year we had a raging bull charging through fences and tearing everything up and we all loved it. All we had to do was follow the bull. The bear has taken his place and is ruining the landscape. And you know what bears do in the woods. Be careful where you step - or put your money.